The position, with full unseen pool and whatnot, is HERE.



, including 4 unknown tiles from current player's rackIt's a relatively straight-forward one at first blush.  There are exactly seven tiles left in the bag, with both blanks unseen, and I trail 299 to 323.  I strongly suspect, due to an obvious fish the previous play, that my opponent holds at least one, and possibly both blanks, and considering the unseen pool unseen tiles (AANNNOORRSUW??), a bingo, while not automatic, seemed probable. My rack is CEIKRSV.  This rack yields one eight, which I did find relatively easily.  It also plays at 14A. 

Pete: Turn 12

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

1

L1

A1

C3

E1

P3

U1

N1

T1

2

F4

A1

Z10

E1

O1

N1

3

Y4

E1

T1

I1

Q10

T1

I1

O1

E1

4

V4

A1

T1

P3

I1

N1

A1

S1

T1

E1

R1

S1

5

I1

W4

A1

D2

L1

I1

L1

6

O1

H4

B3

I1

B3

E1

Y4

7

L1

I1

F4

A1

M3

E1

D2

E1

8

E1

M3

I1

X8

R1

9

T1

G2

10

J8

A1

G2

E1

R1

11

D2

U1

O1

12

H4

U1

G2

E1

13

O1

14

O1

15

D2

	Chris Sheppard	unknown	323
→	Pete	CEIKRSV	299

My logic went as follows:  If I bingo, and he has a bingo, I lose.  and with any small fishing play, I'm drawing at a sub-optimal leave for the necessary bingo.  An intermediate play that scores probably blocks lines I may need to respond, and would probably get outrun by an out in two or three unless I draw a blank.  I decided to exchange KV, figuring that CEIRS +2 had a lot of potential on the wide open board, and sticking him with the V and the K might provide the points I'd need.

I just don't know if my logic was totally on the mark.  Quackle, after 1019 iterations, gives the following:
F10 (JO)CK             17    48.87%
K10 SICK                 34    48.50%
exch KV                      0     47.12%
14A (O)VERSICK   88    46.97%

I don't know if Quackle is wrong because it doesn't infer that a blank seems less likely to come out of bag than pure probability would dictate, or am I wrong to overestimate the chances that my opponent holds that blank?  I think the timing of the plays leads me towards the exchange being better than JOCK, as you're giving your opponent seven tiles if he bingoes, and if he doesn't, throwing a couple of clunky ones for him to work with.  SICK seems way too easy to outrun...

I think I did the right thing, I'm just not sure I fully understand why... I open it to the floor for discussion and insults of the author.

Tags: position, scrabble
Current Location: home
Current Mood: confused

A fun position from Farmington.  My rack was AEGNRSU.  while the answer may be obvious to our most elite, I was very proud of finding the best play here.  It's the kind of play that makes me love the possibilities of this game we play. Sorry for the bad graphics, I'm a luddite.  The U in KUFI is on the center square

UPDATE- graphics improved.  thanks hector31

Rack: AEGNRSU

Pete: Turn 6

Pete: Turn 6

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

1

H4

2

A1

3

N1

4

D2

5

Y4

O1

6

V4

7

O1

X8

I1

8

V4

I1

T1

A1

K5

U1

F4

I1

9

I1

D2

T1

O1

E1

A1

10

A1

F4

E1

N1

11

T

12

O1

13

R1

14

E1

15

S1

	Carolyn Easter		194
→	Pete	AEGNRSU	81

---------------------




Answer after Christmas, assuming it's not posted in the comments.  This was my favorite play from an otherwise bad day for me.  Happy holidays everyone.

Tags: position, scrabble, unwarranted triumphalism
Current Location: Butler, PA
Current Mood: accomplished
Current Music: Sunday Night Football